Why Traditional Pitch Count Doesn't Factor In the "Pitch Cost"

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Why Traditional Pitch Count Doesn't Factor In the "Pitch Cost"

"Without data you're just another person with an opinion." - W. Edwards Deming


In the land of modern day baseball preventative measures for protecting the arms of athletes have never been under a microscope more than they are now. For years a traditional pitch count was assumed to be the healthiest choice for a pitcher to use. What was not factored in was evidence behind that tradition. Luckily in modern times, evidence is necessary for processes to work best. Baseball in a way is becoming more like a classroom than ever before because of evidence based measures. 

Ever since the UCL or Tommy John surgery epidemic hit its peak in the mid 2000's, preventative measures were few and far between. But in the most recent years, measures have been made to factor in what is healthy and what is not healthy for a student-athlete's arm. Perhaps no other organization has put more research into changing pitch count guidelines than Major League Baseball. That research became  MLB Pitch Smart. MLB Pitch Smart is a fully comprehensive research into smarter pitch count guidelines for amateur baseball organizations and leagues to use to make sure that a young athlete's arm is taken care of, instead of being taken advantage of. What MLB found was some eye-opening statistics. According to MLB Pitch Smart, "Forty-Five percent of athletes pitched in a league without pitch counts or limits, 30.4% of athletes pitched on multiple teams with overlapping seasons, 13.2% of athletes pitched competitive baseball for more than 8 months per year, 43.5% of athletes pitched on consecutive days, and 19% of athletes pitched in multiple games on the same day." This is remarkable data. To think of all of the risky behaviors that have taken place to use the young athlete's talents is appalling. Fortunately, the game of baseball is now using these Pitch Smart guidelines to make sure the game is safer and the athlete won't be taken advantage of. As of this writing, twenty-eight amateur baseball organizations are using these guidelines, including Little League and Pony League baseball. 

Besides Major League Baseball, many statistical analysts have put their input into making pitching healthier for athletes. In the early 2000's before he joined the Pittsburgh Pirates analytical department, Dan Fox was working for Baseball Prospectus. He coined a theory called "pitch cost." Pitch Cost theorizes that not every single pitch in a game should be measured as the same due to the different kinds of stresses a situation puts on the pitch and the arm of the pitcher. This makes a lot of sense because there are stressful and less stressful situations depending on the score of the game. Pitching in a 6-0 game and going into the ninth inning, is vastly different than pitching a 2-1 or tie game late in the game. In the close game situation, a pitcher could possibly have pitched less pitches than expected, because he had to exert more energy to get a strikeout rather than to risk giving up a hit to give up the lead. On the other side of the coin, a pitcher in a not so close game won't have to try to throw some pitches for strikeout purposes, and would more likely pitch to contact because of the situation presented to the pitcher.

In 2012-2013 the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates put lots of research into measuring the differnces in exertion of pitches. In fact, their mathematical models helped make sure their pitchers were safer than other organizations at the time. In fact, many fans of the Pirates on Twitter and other social media sites criticized Manager Clint Hurdle for taking out a pitcher before that pitcher hit 100 pitches. Little did they know of the models that the Pirates used in both the Minor League and Major League levels. Before the Pirates dove into this kind of measurement, by using vests that monitored energy levels and measured biomechanics, the Tampa Bay Rays were ahead of the curve and had the least amount of pitching-type injuries in the Major Leagues. 

In Travis Sawchik's "Big Data Baseball", Sawchik briefly discussed the Baltimore Orioles interest in using a sleeve that could read how healthy a pitcher's arm action was by reading his biomechanics and diagnose what throwing program would be best for that specific athlete. That product was called Motus. Now just a few years later, Motus has become a huge factor in saving the arms of many young athletes. Motus is unique because it is a compressive arm sleeve that athletes can wear, diagnose them with a healthy throwing program, and make the athlete better because of that program. 

The game of baseball is safer and better than ever thanks to the use of research. The search for truth instead of relying on tradition has made the game better and healthier for our athletes. If we do not accept the data that has been researched then I highly question your rationality as a coach or teacher of the game. Using the MLB Pitch Smart program and using a data based system such as Motus is not only smart but for the best interest of your athletes. Not only that, but having a conversation with your athletes about why you are doing this will bring in respect to your program as the athlete knows that you have his best interest at heart.  Bringing these research and data based programs onto your team will create a happy and healthy dynamic to your team. While other teams worry about injuries, your team will take the pride in knowing that your team is healthy and knows WHY they are healthy. As stewards of the game of baseball we must realize that having the game healthy and safe is what we all want as coaches, players, and fans. 

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