Why Batting Average Is a Flawed Statistic

Why Batting Average Is a Flawed Statistic

 While batting average is valued by many players, coaches, and fans as the end-all-be-all offensive stat to determine how quality a hitter is, it is flawed. Yes you read that right, it is flawed. The reason that batting average is flawed is because it does not factor in luck. Some people do not believe that luck factors into baseball, but ask anyone who has played baseball and they will tell you, luck is ingrained in the game. 

I am not saying that batting average is a bad statistic, or that it should be thrown away, but it should not be the hallowed statistic when it determines how quality of an offensive weapon a hitter is. If you do not factor in luck to the equation of hitting then your thinking is at fault. Hitting is the single most difficult thing to do in all of sport, ask any coach or hitter and there are some days where we all just want a little lucky hit, because that could spark the offense to break out. 

So what is the most important statistic in understanding how quality a hitter is to an offense and to the team? That statistic is On Base Percentage. On Base Percentage is essentially how often a hitter gets on base. This factors in hits, walks, and hit by pitch. Hits, walks and hit by pitch are considered freebies by coaches, but all are useful to an offense. 

But why is On Base Percentage such a good statistic when determining how quality a hitter is? The answer is rather simple. What is the end goal of a game of baseball? To score more runs than your opponent. On Base Percentage essentially tells you how often a hitter gets on base. The more often they get on base, the more often that they will score runs. It tells you how reliable a run producer that hitter is. Now let's look into other stats that compliment On Base Percentage. 

Other statistics that compliment On Base Percentage are Slugging Percentage, On Base Plus Slugging, Batting Average, and Batting Average On Balls In Play. 

Slugging Percentage- Slugging percentage tells us how many bases a hitter gets from a hit.

On Base Plus Slugging- On Base Plus Slugging tells us how often a hitter gets on base, and from that how many bases his hits get. Sort of a combo of slugging and on base percentages. 

Batting Average- How often a hitter gets hits. 

Batting Average On Balls In Play- This statistic is rather new. It measures luck. This stat is more useful for pitchers, in telling how often balls that are put in play are hits or are outs. 

Another thing to factor in with BABIP is shifts. BABIP struggles to factor in the hit and error factor when it comes to defensive shifting, but with Statcast in Major League Baseball nowadays, and the internet it is much easier to keep up with the times BABIP worked and didn't work. 

I hope this is an insightful view on statistics in analyzing how effective a specific player is within a baseball offense.  Here is one last thought on batting average. Batting average is not a bad stat, but it is not the clearest stat to tell how quality a hitter is. In essence, on base percentage is a TEAM statistic, whereas batting average is an INDIVIDUAL statistic.