How to Measure Luck Within Pitching and How to Play Against Luck

How to Measure Luck Within Pitching and How to Play Against Luck

"What if the pitcher has no control of whether a ball falls for a hit, once it gets put into play?" - Voros McCracken (Lewis, Michael. Moneyball)

For years many baseball fans, players, and coaches wondered why one pitcher had bad luck on  giving up weak hits than another pitcher. This really frustrated many pitchers because they would do everything right, but would still have bad luck. All of this frustration would also fume over to a manager and coaching staff because there was no clear cut answer of why a pitcher who was having success wasn't having that same success as before. 

All of this was unmeasured until one day one man asked why. Enter Voros McCracken. Voros was what you would call a baseball statistic nerd. He found it puzzling as to why one pitcher would appear to be luckier than another pitcher. So by asking why, he created an equation. That equation was dividing the statistics that a pitcher had that the defense behind him could affect. These stats are hits and earned runs. He divided this by the statistics the pitcher had control of all by himself. These stats are walks, strikes, and home runs. When he crunched these numbers together, there was an answer to the luck situation. 

Voros simply came to the conclusion that some pitchers were simply luckier than others, especially considering when they controlled all of their controllables. Now what are those controllables? Those controllables are pitching to their spots, controlling their mental game, and knowing where to go with the ball once it was put in play. Once the ball is out of their finger tips what happens is a build up to if they controlled all of which that they could have controlled. 

Some of the stats that McCracken created regarding luck was LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Statistics) and DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics). Another stat that can be crucial to determining luck is BABIP. BABIP is batting average of balls that are put into play. 

Now how is the element of luck taken out of the equation? The answer to this is defensive shifting. Creating a defense based on where a batter hits the ball has never been easier to do because of statistic programs and the internet. With many systems out there like 6-4-3 charts it is easier now than ever to take the element of luck out of the equation and give coaches and players answers as to why things are happening. 

To sum this all up, statistics are very useful in giving your team an advantage. This is of course not considering that errors will be made, because they will be. But with all of this taken into consideration, defensive shifting will give your team an advantage on your opponent by covering up areas that the opponent's batters routinely hit into.